By Abubakar Yunusa
Nigeria’s telecommunications sector is entering a decisive phase, as operators pivot from chasing subscriber numbers to competing on data strength, network quality and infrastructure depth.
With active subscriptions rising to 185.5 million as of March 2026 and teledensity reaching 85.67 per cent, industry watchers say the market is nearing saturation.
Rather than cooling rivalry, the trend has intensified competition, pushing operators to rethink their growth models and accelerate network investments.
Market leader MTN Nigeria continues to dominate, maintaining a wide gap over rivals in both mobile and internet subscriptions.
The telco recorded 95.7 million active lines in March, translating to a commanding 51.62 per cent market share.
Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission showed that MTN added 2.6 million new subscribers within the first quarter of the year.
Its closest rival, Airtel Nigeria, is, however, mounting a strong challenge.
Airtel closed March with 63.6 million subscriptions and a 34.3 per cent market share.
The operator recorded the highest growth in the period, adding 2.7 million new connections, driven largely by aggressive network expansion.
In contrast, Globacom remains a distant third.
The company posted 22.6 million active subscriptions, gaining just 414,283 new users in the quarter.
Its recovery continues to lag following the loss of about 40 million lines during the NIN-SIM linkage exercise in 2024.
Meanwhile, T2 is still struggling to gain traction despite a roaming agreement with MTN and its recent rebranding.
The operator recorded 3.4 million subscriptions, with a modest addition of 250,331 users over three months.
Industry analysts say the real contest has now shifted beyond subscriber acquisition.
A telecom consultant, Adewale Adeoye, noted that network strength has become the defining factor in the sector.
He said increasing data consumption, which exceeded 1.42 million terabytes in March, is compelling operators to expand capacity or risk congestion and customer loss.
Subscribers, he added, are increasingly willing to switch providers in search of better service quality.
Operators have responded by prioritising 4G expansion, fibre rollout and 5G readiness.
MTN disclosed that it invested N1tn in 2025 to scale up fibre infrastructure, deploy additional base stations and boost nationwide capacity.
The investment more than doubled its previous year’s spending, with a focus on high-demand urban centres.
The company signalled plans to sustain the momentum in 2026 and beyond.
Airtel has also expanded its footprint significantly, growing its network by over 10 per cent in the past year.
The telco added 1,561 new sites, bringing its total to nearly 17,200 nationwide.
Its Chief Executive Officer, Dinesh Balsingh, said the expansion drive was aimed at staying ahead of rising demand.
He noted that the company had grown from about 13,000 sites three years ago to over 17,000 currently, with further investments underway.
Analysts say the evolving competition underscores a broader industry shift, where data — not voice — has become the new battleground.
