‘Tinubu-led FG applying wrong medicines to Nigeria’s ailments’, says SDP’s Adebayo

• Berates President’s economic team for not being proactive

• Wants cost of maintaining people in high offices reduced, masses’ pains alleviated

• Lists hunger, insecurity as nation’s major challenges

By Folorunso Alagbede, Abuja

Prince Adewole Adebayo, a lawyer and entrepreneur, is the national leader of the Social Democratic Party, SDP, and its presidential candidate in the 2023 general election in the country.

Prince Adebayo, in this interview, responded to questions on a wide range of issues of national interest including; the 2025 budget, the performance of the economy, subsidy removal, exchange rate and general hardship in the land.

The legal practitioner cum politician particularly hit hard at the economic team of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, which he accused of not being proactive and lacking in coordination.

Excerpt of the interview:

Q: What are your expectations for Nigeria as a citizen?

A: My expectations as a citizen are that the democracy we have will continue, which will give us an opportunity to ventilate our ideas, and that the government of the day will recognize the extraordinary cooperation that Nigerians have given to the Tinubu administration. The government should now turn a new leaf and try to do something immediately to relieve the excruciating pain that people are going through. The government must realize that it does not have eternal life.

The government is approaching its midterm, and anything it wants to do for Nigerians has already consumed almost half of its time. This year, they must address the word insecurity. They must also address the issue of poverty, factor price fluctuation, and employment. People who are desperately poor should have the ability to take care of themselves if given the opportunity to earn a living by working. The infrastructures that the government is supposed to build to aid productivity must be built, and the political class should think less of themselves and more of the people. The amount of money included in the budget for maintaining people in high places must be reviewed downwards, and these resources should be diverted appropriately in line with Chapter 2 of the Constitution: the welfare of the people.

We should also invest in agriculture to make food cheaper for the people. The major challenge facing Nigerians right now, apart from insecurity, is hunger, which arises from inflation and the high prices of goods and services, especially food.

It’s not a case of people not knowing how to manage; there’s no more room for Nigerians to stretch tiny budgets and salaries. The government must address that.

The government must also address the cost of electricity, other services, education and health care. If the government can do this, then we can hope that the next government will do far better. Right now, their budget is called a budget of restoration, so what they are doing is trying to restore and at least give people back a bit of the comfort they once enjoyed but lost due to the government’s fiscal and monetary policies.

Q: As we enter 2025, a brand-new year full of opportunities, how would you appraise the Tinubu government’s performance over the past year?

A: It will be poor attempts, and it will be missed opportunities. And if I’m to tell them, there’s a lot of room for improvement.

Q: When you say poor, I mean, if you were to grade it, and academically speaking, 10 being the highest, zero being the lowest, how would you grade this government?

Well, 20%, or maybe 22%. So if you have a student who scores 22%, you know, that’s it. To be fair to them, 22%, because in some areas they made attempts, while in others, they just threw away the opportunities.

That’s how I measure it—by how much of the opportunities for growth and development they have taken. They’ve taken less than 22%.

It was even noticed that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, when the President addressed the joint session of the National Assembly, remarked that the 2024 budget had not been fully implemented. You will also see that the 2024 budget has now been extended by the National Assembly to almost the middle of this year. So, they haven’t taken opportunities.

This is not about a personal measurement; it’s an objective metric of how far they have dealt with the issues. You will see the implications in areas such as employment generation—they haven’t even reduced unemployment by 22%.

If you look at inflation, they’ve worsened it. If you look at the poverty index, they’ve worsened it. So, the measurement is not just a political one—it’s a measurement based on data coming from within their own government.

Q: Okay, let’s take it one step at a time. Do you believe he has good intentions and is sincere, but his approach is wrong? Is that correct?

A: There are three errors. The first error is that he wanted to do fiscal management, which is necessary in government. He wanted to do fiscal reform, which means saying, I don’t like the idea that government is spending so much money on certain things like subsidy—petroleum subsidy, life funding, trying to defend the Naira by throwing money at it.

That was causing a significant deficit in government financing, which in turn created a monetary problem. So what did he do? He removed the subsidy in a way that caused factor costs to rise, inflation to spiral, and further problems for the central bank in managing inflation and foreign exchange. At the same time, he is still running a deficit anyway.

So you see the problem: the reform caused ripples in the larger economy, but the original issue he wanted to solve remains unresolved. All the money saved in the name of subsidy removal has disappeared. He is still borrowing more. The money diverted from subsidy has not increased employment in the economy. There’s no evidence to say that since they came into office, employment numbers have improved.

That’s why I said the approach he took is wrong. If you examine the system he wants to run—a neoliberal system, which he has the right to pursue because it’s what he campaigned on—the problem lies in how he has set up his economic team. There’s no sign they are proactive.

They are only reacting to the consequences of earlier actions, always defending and perpetually behind. The economic team is not nimble or sharp enough.

Even if he chooses not to go outside his party to find people for the economic team, the APC has enough talents within its ranks. He hasn’t even utilized the best people within the party. In a few cases where he got the appointments right, you can see the difference.

Here’s an example that proves the excuse of what I met on the ground is not valid. Take Wike, for instance. He doesn’t go around saying, Oh, I met the FCT with no streetlights, bad roads… He goes straight to work, and you can see the results.

Look at the Minister of Interior. He’s not lamenting about millions of passport backlogs or other inherited challenges. He’s addressing them.

But every time you see President Tinubu on TV, where is he? He’s at the FCT opening one road or at the Ministry of Interior unveiling some technological system.

Now, imagine if that same proactive approach was applied to the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy or to Agriculture.

Q:Was that an economic scene or was that a Ministry?

A: No, they’re just singing blues there right now. So if he goes there and does something similar in agriculture… The first Minister of Education, he chose, was busy saying children were going to school too early, at the age of 18 and all of that.

There’s a lot of money in the education sector—a lot of money that could have been used to transform universities, create employment, and expand faculties. But they don’t do any of those things.

That’s why I’m saying that the President himself—I understand his vision, I don’t agree with it, but I understand it. What he is trying to do is this: I will soften the Nigerian economy, get Nigerian youth to endure a bit of suffering, and then foreign investments will come in through foreign direct investment.

But none of that has happened. And the reason it hasn’t happened is that the environment is not macroeconomically stable enough. Foreign investors are watching how local investors are reacting.

I have money in my pocket, and I’m watching President Tinubu’s budget. I haven’t seen anything in this year’s budget that suggests I should bring out that little money in my pocket and risk it in the economy. Therefore, my partner in China, Indonesia, or the USA will also be more skeptical.

What I want us to understand is this: they should stop talking about what they met on the ground. Apart from the fact that their party has been in power for nine years (though I don’t want to go into politics), they should stop using that excuse. What they met on the ground is what they used to campaign. They knew what they would meet, so there’s no excuse.

Q: But realistically, if you had become President in 2023, did you imagine that this was the quantum of challenges you would have met?

A: I was expecting worse. If you look at President Buhari’s years in office, they were years of suspense, where the country went into a coma and occasionally came out to do something. This may have been because the President was ill at some point, or perhaps because his VP and himself appeared not to share the same policies. Whenever the President traveled, something else would happen.

In the end, they had a mismanaged central bank that allowed them to mismanage their budget and borrow unnecessarily. They also mismanaged the currency and everything else. So, I knew that was the situation.

But when you come in, you do not worsen the case. If you meet a patient in the hospital with very high blood pressure, the first thing you don’t do is give them salty food that will worsen it. You need to stop the bleeding.

You have to raise all the indices necessary to start normalization. The problem, if I were to blame President Tinubu, is that he did not stabilize the economy. When he came in, his job was to stabilize the economy—just like stabilizing a patient in the hospital. Then you start treatment. Now, he wants to do this treatment. I’ve seen some of the speeches he’s made here and there. He now wants to stabilize, but he already applied the wrong medicines.

So, the patient is now in a very terrible state. If he can focus, have his own program—not just flying to Dubai today, Abu Dhabi tomorrow, and so on—he needs a coordinated economic plan. He should start by ensuring the 2025 budget, which I think is poorly written and poorly articulated, is implemented properly.

In fact, he should take a step back, finish the 2024 budget strongly (which they mismanaged), and then begin the 2025 budget with a clear plan to pin things down and create stability.

For example, if they can keep the Naira from fluctuating for 120 days, I would know they are serious. Just don’t let it fluctuate for 120 days.

Q: It seems they weren’t very ambitious with their projections for the Naira-to-dollar rate, pegging it at 1,500 in the 2025 budget. Do you think this shows a lack of ambition or belief that things could improve beyond the current state?

A: When I look at that, I start thinking like a Scotsman. I would give them the Scottish double entry, meaning that if they manage it well, they can balance the middle. Do you know why? If the rates are unrealistically low, as some people believe, it means that in managing the financial budget, they will have to spend more Naira to meet the numbers. On the other hand, if they increase the sale of crude oil and other foreign receipts, they will have additional money.

Q: Instead of focusing solely on foreign direct investment, shouldn’t the government prioritize energizing local economies and working with state governments to set up industries that could start producing within 18 to 20 months?

A: It’s not only possible, it’s mandatory. However, the government isn’t thinking in those terms. For international investment, it takes about six years of stability to attract foreign direct investment. Foreign portfolio investors, on the other hand, may enter if they see opportunities for quick profit, such as undervalued stocks or favorable exchange rates.

To attract foreign direct investment, President Tinubu’s government needs six years of stable fiscal, monetary, trade, and structural reforms. With only two years remaining, that’s a challenge.

In the SDP, our plan was to ensure government revenue has no leakage, stabilize inflation to single digits, and create an environment where the Naira is as dependable as any foreign currency. This would encourage people to retain wealth in Naira, lower factor prices, generate jobs, and improve infrastructure to reduce costs for everyone.

However, the government’s current handling of the foreign exchange policy has led to a decrease in the value of the Naira, despite increasing the budget from 35 trillion to 47.9 trillion, which has led to a $28 billion shortfall.

Q: Given the possibility of pushing the budget to about 50 trillion with constituency projects, while the previous budget was lower in figure, is the 2025 budget actually lower in value?

A: The budget is five billion dollars lower, down from 33 billion dollars last year to 28 billion dollars. Despite borrowing, including 15 trillion for debt financing, they have managed better than the Buhari administration by avoiding excessive ways and means. While they have become more active in the bond market, borrowing in foreign exchange will still require future repayment.

Q: How do you mean when you say you are coming?

A:The debt outlives the administration.

Q: So, you are hoping that the SDP is going to take over from the Tinubu government?

A: That’s why we are working. That’s why we are making sure whatever advice we give to them now is in their self-interest because we don’t want the whole city to be damaged .

Q: There have been reports that Northern elites are meeting with some Southern leaders and making plans for the 2027 elections. Is it true that there are efforts to take out the Tinubu government?

A: Of course, there are plans.

Our intention is to ensure they are stable, complete their four years, and then step aside. That’s the core of the conversation. The SDP’s approach is to have a national consensus on how to run the economy, security, growth, and development—not just a conspiracy focused on removing one person.

In the past, we’ve had situations where it was about forcing someone out, like with Jonathan. We don’t want that. What we want now is to have a consensus on how the government is performing and what needs to be done once it’s time for a change in leadership.

The most important role for the SDP is to present our manifesto to all those in politics who believe change is necessary. This change must be based on principles, manifestos, programs, and plans—not personalities.