By Mohamed Chtatou
First of all, an increase in average temperature has been observed throughout the continent (as in the rest of the world). Some regions have already exceeded +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era. According to a pessimistic emissions scenario, which, however, in view of the commitments made by States in terms of mitigation, appears likely: the average temperature in Africa could exceed +3.5°C in some regions, and at least +2°C, by 2050. However, the more the average temperature increases, the more the other impacts intensify: in strength and in frequency.[iii]
The report entitled “State of the Climate in Africa 2021”, published on September 8, 2022 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that African countries will soon experience water stress.[iv]
It explains that the rate of temperature rise in Africa, about +0.3°C per decade from 1991 to 2021, is faster than the global average and that the average near-surface air temperature in Africa is estimated to be 0.68°C above the baseline.
The report is based on the fact that the surface area of Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since 1960, resulting in a reduction in arable land, a decline in fish production, and a loss of biological biodiversity in the Chad Basin.
In addition, according to the same report, about 418 million people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water, 779 million people lack basic sanitation services, and 839 million lack basic hygiene services.[v]
For a more integrated management of water resources, the WMO report proposes to African countries, transboundary cooperation, through data exchange and knowledge sharing, crop diversification, and the use of more drought-resistant crops.
This is in addition to the adoption of investment policies for water resources management and sanitation.
This is first of all the case of heat waves phenomena, which affect the whole continent, particularly the Horn of Africa. These heat waves have of course harmful consequences on the populations, but also on the fauna and flora. Also linked to the increase in average temperature, there is a significant increase in desertification phenomena which, according to the FAO, could cause the loss of 2/3 of the continent’s arable land by 2030. The Sahel strip is particularly concerned, but also the east coast and the south and north of the continent.
The disruption of the climate system is also causing changes in rainfall patterns, with significant regional disparities. The decrease in precipitation contributes to drought phenomena, which are already strongly affecting the North and South of the continent. This trend will continue in the coming years: the percentage of the decade spent in drought in 2050 could exceed 80% in North Africa, and in the South of the continent. [vi]
Conversely, changes in precipitation patterns can also cause increased rainfall, often resulting in floods, which are sometimes coupled with landslides. East Africa is a particularly vulnerable region to both droughts and floods that follow one another and undermine natural and social systems.
Another manifestation of climate change on the continent is the rise in sea levels. Here it is of course the countries with a coastline that are affected, and in Africa one notes a particularly significant rise from Mauritania to the Gulf of Guinea. In addition, populations located in island states, such as the Seychelles, Madagascar, or Mauritius are particularly threatened as their territory is submerged by water. The southwestern part of the continent is also affected, with a rise of about 5mm per year. In addition, the increase in CO2 emissions, and the amount stored by the oceans, is causing an acidification of the water that impacts plant and animal organisms.
Finally, as stated in the latest IPCC report released in August 2021,[vii] climate change is accompanied by an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural disasters of climate origin. In addition to flooding, there is also an increased occurrence of storms and cyclones. We are thinking here, particularly of the east coast of Africa, especially Mozambique, which has been affected in the last two years by particularly violent cyclones, at very close intervals.
The phenomenon has become more severe in recent years due to climate change induced by man, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). [viii] Its disruptions are such that they reduce the frequency and quantity of rainfall, plunging states into drought. This means that water reserves cannot recharge as they should in order to maintain a hydrological balance.
Four failing rainy seasons have caused the worst drought in at least 40 years in the Horn of Africa. The phenomenon is global. On all continents, millions of livestock have died, and crops have been destroyed. In Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia in particular, the inhabitants are living in near famine conditions. In total, more than one million people have left their homes in search of food and water.[ix]In early 2022, the WFP called for funds to help the 13 million people threatened by hunger in the Horn of Africa.
By mid-2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine captured the attention of global donors and sent food and fuel prices soaring, WFP estimated that 20 million people in the region needed urgent assistance. This number will reach “at least 22 million by September,” WFP said in a statement. It “will continue to increase and hunger will worsen if the next rainy season (from October to December) fails and the most vulnerable people do not receive humanitarian assistance,” the UN agency added, saying that “famine is now a serious risk, especially in Somalia.[x]
Concerning the severe drought in the Horn of Africa, WMO argues that this will continue for the fifth year on end, so there is no relief in sight:[xi]
‘’As millions of people in the Greater Horn of Africa have already “suffered the longest drought in 40 years,” parts of the region are bracing for a fifth consecutive failed rainy season, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported.
The forecast for October to December, issued at the Greater Horn of Africa Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum, shows high chances of drier than average conditions across most parts of the region, which will further worsen the crisis for millions of people.
“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news,” said Guleid Artan, Director of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) – WMO’s climate centre for East Africa.
“Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the fifth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa”.’’
East Africa faces its worst drought in 40 years
The East and Horn of Africa region could experience one of the worst droughts in its history. Not since 1981 have temperatures been so high and rainfall so low. The consequences for the population are already severe and could intensify. In Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, millions of people are already suffering the consequences of global warming. The rainy season is approaching, but the forecast is not good. No more so than in the last four years.
Four years of droughts that have left the eastern part of the continent dry, depleted, or destroyed crops, wiped out herds of cattle, and reduced water supplies. “Between 15 and 16 million people are already in need of immediate food aid,” estimates Ethiopian Workneh Gebeyehu, executive secretary of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. And the number of drought victims is expected to increase further: “according to the latest expert estimates, about 29 million people are facing high levels of food insecurity,” he goes on to say.
In Ethiopia, Gode Hospital has seen the situation worsen in six months. The number of patients has tripled, with the vast majority suffering from malnutrition. And among the first victims, the children. “The drought has affected the whole community, especially children, especially children under five. So we are receiving many malnourished children, more than the children we saw six months ago. The number of admissions has increased from five patients a day to 15 patients a day,” said Dr. Mahamed Shafi, director of Gode Hospital, before adding, “this drought is the worst we have seen in the last 20 years.’’
Thus, six million Somalis, or 40% of the population, are facing extreme levels of food insecurity and “a very real risk of famine in the coming months,” worries the World Food Program. In Kenya, 500,000 people are headed for a food crisis, particularly in northern communities that rely on livestock.
The World Food Program had reacted earlier this year by launching an appeal for funding. Only 4% of the amount had been raised. The amount has just been revised upwards: 473 million dollars (438 million euros) are needed to provide rapid and effective aid in the region.
“We know from past experience that to avert a humanitarian disaster, responding quickly is vital, but our ability to initiate the response has been limited by a lack of funding to date,” said Michael Dunford, WFP’s regional director for East Africa.
The fear of not being able to respond in time. Above all, there is the fear of a repeat of the 2011 humanitarian disaster in Somalia, when 260,000 people died of hunger, half of them children under the age of six.
Mohamed Chtatou is an Int’l Affairs Analyst.
