By Abubakar Yunus
Global demand for lithium is projected to rise by 353 per cent between 2024 and 2040, as the clean energy transition fuels an unprecedented appetite for critical minerals, a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has revealed.
The report also projected a 131 per cent increase in demand for graphite over the same period, underscoring the growing strategic importance of minerals required for electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and battery storage systems.
UNCTAD said the rapid expansion of clean energy technologies would become the dominant driver of global mineral demand as countries intensify efforts to reduce carbon emissions and shift towards greener economies.
According to the report, clean technologies will account for an increasingly larger share of overall demand for critical minerals in the coming years.
It noted that the share of lithium demand linked to clean technologies is expected to increase from 62 per cent in 2024 to 87 per cent by 2040.
The organisation added that clean technologies would also claim a significantly larger share of demand for other strategic minerals.
“Between 2024 and 2040, the clean technologies share of nickel demand is projected to increase from 17 per cent to 42 per cent, and of magnet rare earth elements from 21 per cent to 31 per cent,” the report stated.
The development is expected to create new business opportunities across the global mining and manufacturing sectors, particularly for countries endowed with critical mineral resources.
However, UNCTAD warned that competition for control of mineral value chains is intensifying as governments seek greater economic returns from their natural resources.
The report revealed that nearly 100 new export measures targeting critical energy transition minerals have been introduced globally since 2020.
These include 37 licensing requirements, 31 export taxes, 29 export bans and one export quota.
According to UNCTAD, the Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded the highest number of export restrictions, followed by China and Indonesia.
The report said many resource-rich nations are increasingly prioritising local processing and value addition rather than exporting raw minerals.
Analysts believe the trend could reshape global supply chains and spark fresh competition among countries seeking to capture a larger share of the economic benefits generated by the global clean energy transition.
UNCTAD noted that the race for critical minerals is expected to become a defining feature of international trade and industrial policy as demand for clean energy technologies continues to accelerate
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